000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101509
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
810 AM PDT SAT SEP 10 2011

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO ADD DISCUSSION OF SYSTEM ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN