000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311338
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
640 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE RAINFALL HAZARD IN SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO

UPDATED...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...ABOUT 70
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING...AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...AND COLIMA THROUGH THURSDAY.  RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES COULD AFFECT THESE STATES...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN