000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301752
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES THAT THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...
MICHOACAN...AND COLIMA THROUGH THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN