000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161737
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA...LOCATED ABOUT 1775 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO.  IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON FERNANDA ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE