000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152338
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1655 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED AND SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.


$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY