000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151750
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW HAS A WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE CENTER...IT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AND OVER COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...HAS INCREASED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG