000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151132
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE...AND ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG