000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150534
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.  

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN