000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142346
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR
10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.  

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUATEMALA.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 TO 15
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LOWRY