000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141740
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR
10 MPH.

A DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG