000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141144
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG