000
ABPZ20 KNHC 140535
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. 
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.   

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN