000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132358
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBED WEATHER AREA LOCATED SEVERAL 
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.   

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LOWRY