000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131458
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA