000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131140
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1075 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA