000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130541
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN