000
ACPN50 PHFO 160514
TWOCP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS 
SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST NEAR 15 
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
OF KAUAI IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. OUTFLOW FROM THE SYSTEM 
DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MAKING CONDITIONS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED 
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII 
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST 
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY 
EVENING.

$$

BIRCHARD