000
ACPN50 PHFO 152126
TWOCP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1125 AM HST THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI 
IS MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF 
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN COVERAGE 
OVERNIGHT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE DEVELOPING. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS 
SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. 
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST 
NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII IS 
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST 
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON.


$$

DWROE