000
ACPN50 PHFO 151400
TWOCP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
KAUAI IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES 
WEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 20 PERCENT...THAT 
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI 
IS MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF 
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE 
DEVELOPING...AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING NEAR THE 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 80 
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII IS 
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST 
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING.

$$

BIRCHARD