000
ABNT20 KNHC 172316
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred 
miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this disturbance 
should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to 
west-northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands 
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern 
Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is 
not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Satellite images show a broad area of low pressure over the western 
Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better defined, and nearby buoy 
observations indicate surface pressures are falling. The associated 
shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, and 
environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional 
development over the next couple of days. A short-lived tropical 
depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over 
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Regardless 
of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of 
Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart