000
ABNT20 KNHC 200546
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Alberto, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the 
northernmost Bahamas is producing disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity.  While environmental conditions are only 
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of 
this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and 
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast 
early on Friday.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form near the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday.  Environmental conditions appear to 
be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and this system 
could become a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or 
northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch