000
ABNT20 KNHC 202327
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean 
Sea are associated with a small low pressure area.  Although the 
thunderstorm activity has recently increased over the southwestern 
portion of the low, nearby dry air is forecast to prevent much 
additional development of the system as it begins to drift slowly 
westward over the next couple of days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is developing along a frontal boundary just 
to the southeast of Bermuda. This non-tropical low is forecast to 
move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over 
warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and 
environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to 
gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or 
tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the 
system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by 
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown