000
ABNT20 KNHC 160503
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea 
continues to  produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear marginally 
conducive for development of this system over the next day or two, 
and a tropical depression could form by this weekend as the system  
moves northeastward across the western and central part of the 
Caribbean Sea.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system later today. 

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy 
rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over 
portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater 
Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, 
the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this 
system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure has formed near southern Florida 
along a frontal boundary.  This system is forecast to move quickly 
northeastward across the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of 
the U.S. through the weekend.  Although development into a tropical 
cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to continue to 
produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern 
Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next day or 
so.  For more information on this system, including gale warnings, 
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi