000
ABNT20 KNHC 151740
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist in association with a 
trough of low pressure located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. 
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development 
of this system over the next couple of days, and a tropical 
depression could form by this weekend as the system starts moving 
northeastward across the western and central part of the Caribbean 
Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled to 
investigate the system tomorrow. 

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy 
rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over 
portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater 
Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, 
the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this 
system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near 
southern Florida along a frontal boundary by tomorrow. This system 
is then forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Bahamas 
and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. 
Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this 
system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across 
portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas 
during the next couple of days.  For more information on this 
system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by 
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin