000
ABNT20 KNHC 102029
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
430 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update the discussion of the system in the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93).

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest 
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of 
showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit more 
concentrated while also showing signs of organization, and 
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next 
couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or 
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized this 
afternoon in association with a broad area of low pressure located 
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Data from an Air Force 
Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the system has so far 
found the circulation remains elongated and not well-defined, with 
maximum sustained winds of only 20-25 mph. Based on the current 
structure, additional development is becoming unlikely before the 
system merges with a developing frontal boundary over the western 
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast 
to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of 
Mexico by tomorrow, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf 
Coast by the latter portion of this week. For more information, see 
products from your local National Weather Service office, and high 
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin