873 ABNT20 KNHC 101136 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms have increased some, but remain disorganized, in association with an area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable, surface pressures have been falling near the system, and it has a short window to develop further over the next day or so. However, by Wednesday morning the system is forecast to merge with a developing frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast by the latter portion of this week. For more information, see products from your local National Weather Service office, and high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin