000
ABNT20 KNHC 091737
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a 
large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a 
bit more concentrated this afternoon, and environmental conditions 
appear conducive for additional development of this system during 
the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form in 
the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward or 
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization 
in association with a small area of low pressure over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only 
marginally favorable for some additional development while the 
system moves slowly northward before the low merges with a frontal 
system over the western Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin