000
ABNT20 KNHC 311152
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an 
area of low pressure located about 700 miles east-northeast of the 
northern Leeward Islands.  However, the system does not currently 
have a well-defined center of circulation.  Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be sufficiently favorable for development over the 
next few days, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form 
during the next day or so.  The system is expected to move 
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph today, and then turn northward over 
the central subtropical Atlantic by late tonight or Tuesday.  
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in association 
with an area of low pressure located offshore of the 
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast.  The system appears to be acquiring 
non-tropical characteristics as it begins to merge with a frontal 
boundary, and its chances of becoming a tropical cyclone appear to 
be decreasing.  Regardless, the low is expected to begin producing 
gale-force winds today while it moves quickly toward the 
east-northeast at about 30 mph, and additional information on this 
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
For more information about marine hazards associated with AL96 
and AL97, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header 
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg