387 
ABNT20 KNHC 301754
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more 
concentrated in association with an area of low pressure located 
about 700 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally favorable for gradual 
development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the early part of this week. The 
system is expected to move northwestward at about 15 mph during the 
next day or so, and then turn northward over the central subtropical 
Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the North Carolina Coast (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of 
organization in association with a trough of low pressure located 
about 100 miles southeast of Morehead City, North Carolina. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some 
additional development over the next day or so as the system 
gradually accelerates east-northeastward into the northwestern 
Atlantic Ocean. Afterwards, this system is likely to merge with a 
frontal boundary. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin