000
ABNT20 KNHC 301140
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a broad area of low pressure located a little less than 1000 miles 
east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be marginally favorable for gradual development of this 
system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form during the early part of this week. The system is expected 
to move northwestward at about 15 mph during the next day or so, and 
then turn northward over the central subtropical Atlantic by late 
Monday or Tuesday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Carolina Coast:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a 
trough of low pressure that recently emerged off the Carolina 
coastline, and is currently located about 100 miles south of 
Wilmington, North Carolina. Environmental conditions appear 
generally favorable for some additional development over the next 
day or two as the system gradually accelerates east-northeastward 
into the northwestern Atlantic ocean. Afterwards, this system is 
likely to merge with a frontal boundary. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin