000 ABNT20 KNHC 010537 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have become a little more concentrated during the past several hours. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or so as the system meanders over the northeastern or eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on later today, if necessary. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2023 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation -------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Arlene ar-LEEN Lee lee Bret bret Margot MAR-go Cindy SIN-dee Nigel NY-juhl Don dahn Ophelia o-FEEL-ya Emily EH-mih-lee Philippe fee-LEEP Franklin FRANK-lin Rina REE-nuh Gert gert Sean shawn Harold HAIR-uld Tammy TAM-ee Idalia ee-DAL-ya Vince vinss Jose ho-Zay Whitney WHIT-nee Katia KAH-tya This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions, being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three", etc.). The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by radar. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5. All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and graphical products can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and updated products for the 2023 season can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2023.pdf. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php. $$ Forecaster Beven