000
ABNT20 KNHC 070534
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
Recent satellite-derived wind data and reports from a NOAA buoy 
indicate that the center of a low pressure system located more than 
300 miles northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is becoming better 
defined, and the system is producing an area of gale-force winds 
well to the east of its center.  In addition, the associated shower 
and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show signs of 
organization.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is 
expected to form later today or tonight while moving slowly 
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic.  The system is then 
forecast to turn westward and west-southwestward on Tuesday and 
Wednesday, approaching and moving near the northwestern Bahamas and 
the east coast of Florida, where additional development is possible.

Regardless of development, the risk continues to increase for a 
prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, 
heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion along 
the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and 
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during much of the 
upcoming week.  Interests in those areas should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm 
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas later 
today.  Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service and in products from your local weather office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A well-defined area of low pressure located about 650 miles east of 
Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds, but the associated 
shower and thunderstorm activity is displaced to the east of the 
low's center due to strong upper-level winds.  Upper-level winds are 
expected to remain unfavorable for development while the system 
moves northward and then northeastward at about 10 mph, but a 
short-lived tropical storm could still form later today or on 
Tuesday before the low dissipates and merges with a cold front.  
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg