000
ABNT20 KNHC 061743
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located more than 200 miles north of Puerto 
Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northward and then 
northwestward into the southwestern Atlantic where environmental 
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a 
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or 
so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or 
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part 
of this week where additional development is possible. 

Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal 
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, 
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States 
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and 
northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this 
week.  Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the 
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm 
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by 
early Monday. Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service and in products from your local weather office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
east of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds and an area of 
showers and thunderstorms displaced northeast of the center. If the 
associated shower activity redevelops closer to the center, a 
tropical storm could form over the next couple of days while the 
system drifts slowly initially but then begins to move northeastward 
over the central Atlantic. The system is then forecast to merge with 
a strong cold front by the middle part of this week. Additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin