000
ABNT20 KNHC 060520
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have recently decreased in coverage in 
association with a well-defined low pressure area located several 
hundred miles east of Bermuda.  If the shower and thunderstorm 
activity re-develops near the center, a short-lived tropical 
depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so while 
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the 
central Atlantic.  The system is forecast to turn northward and 
northeastward and merge with a strong cold front by the middle of 
this week, and further development is not expected beyond that 
time. Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea 
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern 
Atlantic later today, where a broad area of low pressure is expected 
to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or 
tropical depression is likely to form early this week while the 
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the 
southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an 
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy 
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the 
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and 
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to 
middle part of this week. The disturbance is also expected to bring 
locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this 
weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of 
this system.    
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci