000
ABNT20 KNHC 051728
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on 
the remnants of Lisa, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern 
Atlantic by Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected 
to form north of Hispaniola.  Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or 
tropical depression could form during the early part of next week 
while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over 
the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless of development, there is an 
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy 
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the 
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and 
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early 
to middle part of next week.  The disturbance is also expected to 
bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands 
this weekend.  Interests in those areas should monitor the progress 
of this system.     
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical area of 
low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda are 
beginning to show signs of organization.  The system is producing 
gale-force winds, and is currently attached to a frontal system.  
The front is forecast to decay during the next day or so, and 
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some 
additional development.  A tropical or subtropical depression 
could form within the next few days while the system moves 
northwestward, and then turns northeastward over the central 
Atlantic.  After that time, the low is forecast to merge with a 
strong cold ending the chance of further development. Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown