000
ABNT20 KNHC 300542
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea.  
Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of this system. 
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled 
to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary. 
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over 
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, 
Hispaniola, and Jamaica for the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Western Atlantic:
A low pressure area located about 60 miles north of Bermuda is 
producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity to the northeast 
of the center as it continues to interact with a nearby frontal 
zone.  Upper-level winds are increasing over the system, and the 
low is forecast to merge with the front later today as it moves 
generally eastward.  Subtropical development of this system appears 
to be unlikely. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch