425 
ABNT20 KNHC 061132
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west-northwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands.

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure located over the far 
southeastern Caribbean Sea just off the coast of Venezuela 
continues to produce an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms 
over the southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and 
adjacent waters.  While land interaction with the northern coast of 
South America may hinder significant development during the next 
day or so, environmental conditions are expected to be mostly 
conducive for development while the system moves westward at about 
15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day 
or two by the time it enters the south-central Caribbean Sea.  
Additional strengthening is anticipated while the system moves 
westward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea toward Central America 
late Friday through Sunday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, 
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of 
the Windward Islands, northern portions of Venezuela including 
Isla Margarita, the ABC Islands, and the Guajira Peninsula of 
Colombia during the next day or two.  Interests in those locations, 
in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Key messages for the disturbance over the far southeastern Caribbean 
Sea can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at 
www.hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Berg