000
ABNT20 KNHC 230549
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located less than 200 miles west of Bermuda, and on Tropical 
Storm Gaston, located less than 200 miles northwest of the central 
Azores. 

Central Caribbean Sea:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms have 
increased and are showing signs of organization tonight with a 
well-defined low pressure system located over the central Caribbean 
Sea about 100 miles north-northeast of Curacao. Even though the 
upper-level wind environment is currently only marginally favorable, 
only a small additional increase in organization would result in the 
formation of a tropical depression later today. The system is 
expected to continue moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
across the central and western Caribbean Sea.  Locally heavy 
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect northwestern 
Venezuela, the ABC island chain, and northeastern Colombia through 
Friday.  Interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba 
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, located roughly in between the Cabo 
Verde islands to the east and the west coast of Africa, is producing 
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this activity is 
gradually becoming better organized, earlier satellite wind data 
indicated the circulation remained fairly broad. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some 
development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by this weekend while the system moves northward at 
about 10 mph, parallel to the coast of west Africa. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized association 
with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Despite marginal 
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system 
remains possible over the next several days while it drifts 
northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin