000
ABNT20 KNHC 211145
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located northeast of the southeastern Bahamas, and on 
Tropical Storm Gaston, located over the north-central Atlantic 
Ocean.

Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a 
couple hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The 
system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely 
become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The 
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the 
southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central 
Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands 
should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall 
and gusty winds are affecting these islands.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern 
Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later 
this week.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on 
Thursday. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could 
form this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between 
west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

East Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased  in association with 
a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands.  Despite a dry environment, slow development 
of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves 
northwestward and then westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci