000
ABNT20 KNHC 200550
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located just southeast of the Turks and Caicos islands.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in 
association with an area of low pressure located over the central 
subtropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear marginally 
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form over the next couple of days before upper-level winds 
become less conducive later this week.  The system should generally 
move northward or northeastward while remaining over the open waters 
of central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is forecast 
during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward 
Islands, and a tropical depression could form toward the latter 
part of this week or weekend as the system moves into the eastern 
and central Caribbean sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin