000
ABNT20 KNHC 291146
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea to the 
north of Venezuela.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This 
system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of 
Texas today. The disturbance has not become any better organized 
since yesterday, however some slow development is still possible and 
it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast 
before it moves inland tonight or early Thursday. Regardless of 
development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas 
coast for the next few days. For more information about the 
potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your 
National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this 
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is 
producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  Slow 
development of the wave is possible while it moves 
west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to 
move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and 
then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further 
development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky