000
ABNT20 KNHC 262322
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave 
located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward 
Islands has changed little in organization since earlier today.  
However, environmental conditions appear conducive for development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days 
before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or 
while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday 
through Friday.  Interests in the Windward Islands and along the 
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this 
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for 
portions of these areas on Monday.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the 
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and 
northeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low 
pressure.  Development of this system is expected to be slow to 
occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern 
Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg