000
ABNT20 KNHC 261725
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands 
continues to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form during the early to the middle part of this week.  
This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 
15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward 
Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea 
on Wednesday and Thursday.  Interests in the Windward Islands 
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and 
northeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low 
pressure.  Development of this system is expected to be slow to 
occur as it drifts westward to west-southwestward across the 
northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch