000
ABNT20 KNHC 311729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: 
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near 
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple 
of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the 
eastern Pacific.  Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, 
this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it 
moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of 
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize 
during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, 
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.  
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys 
and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci