000
ABNT20 KNHC 120520
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the tropical wave, 
located a little over 150 miles east of the Windward Islands, has 
become less defined overnight. While this system continues to 
produce showers and thunderstorms primarily east of its center, 
strong upper-level winds will likely prevent further development 
during the next couple of days.  Regardless of development, the 
system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across 
portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Another tropical wave moving over Hispaniola is producing a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Although 
environmental conditions are not forecast to be conducive for 
development of this system, a broad area of low pressure, however, 
is expected to form near the southeast Bahamas on Wednesday and 
drift generally eastward through the end of the week.  Regardless 
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of 
the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next 
couple of days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts