000
ABNT20 KNHC 110516
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure area located just off the North 
Carolina coast continues to produce some disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Although this system is not expected to become a 
tropical or subtropical cyclone, locally heavy rainfall and gusty 
winds are still possible over portions of the North Carolina Outer 
Banks today and information on these hazards can be found in 
products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. 
Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and 
thunderstorms.  Some slow development is possible during the next 
day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph 
toward the Lesser Antilles.  After that time, strong upper-level 
winds are expected to limit further development.  Regardless of 
development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and 
gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser 
Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward 
Islands on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. 
Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit development 
over the next day or so, but environmental conditions could become a 
little more conducive for some gradual development of the system 
when it is located near the southeastern Bahamas around midweek. 
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over 
portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during 
the next couple of days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi