000
ABNT20 KNHC 260521
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Sam, located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward 
Islands.

An elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
associated with the remnants of Peter is located several hundred 
miles south-southeast of Bermuda.  Upper-level winds only appear 
marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance 
over the next few days as it moves northeastward at about 10 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on 
Monday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form 
by midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 
10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form over the eastern or central 
tropical Atlantic early this week, to the west of the tropical wave 
that will be moving off the coast of Africa.  Thereafter, 
environmental conditions could support some development of this 
disturbance while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph through the 
middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart