000
ABNT20 KNHC 231753
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Sam, located about 1700 miles east-southeast 
of the northern Leeward Islands.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of 
Odette, is located a little more than 600 miles west-northwest of 
the westernmost Azores.  While showers and thunderstorms remain 
limited near the low, only a small increase in this activity could 
result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone while 
it moves generally southward over marginally warmer waters during 
the next day or so.  Strong upper-level winds are expected to 
develop over the system beginning tomorrow, which should then limit 
further development.  Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A surface trough of low pressure has developed in association with a 
large area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles 
southeast of Bermuda. This feature is interacting with an 
upper-level trough, and some tropical or subtropical development 
could occur in the next day or two as this feature moves generally 
north-northwestward. Strong upper-level winds should prohibit 
further development by this weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of 
Africa by the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of 
this system as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far east 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Sam are issued under 
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Sam are issued 
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin