000
ABNT20 KNHC 150554
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on 
Tropical Depression Nicholas, located just west of the Texas and 
Louisiana border. Future advisories on Nicholas will be issued by 
the Weather Prediction Center.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area 
located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continue 
to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while 
the system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast of 
the central Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear 
marginally conducive for gradual development during the next few 
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system 
moves north-northwestward to northward across the western Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of 
Africa toward the end of the week. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development while the 
system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the 
far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, 
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 

$$
Forecaster Papin