000
ABNT20 KNHC 142339
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on 
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near Port 
Arthur, Texas.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area 
located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are 
becoming better organized.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next couple of days while system moves 
generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical 
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles 
north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual 
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form while the system moves north-northwestward to 
northward across the western Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of 
Africa toward the end of the week.  Environment conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, while it moves 
generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts